This is not really a TEAM One report however, I put it here because it is a research report. Perhaps Nathan might consider creating a place for research reports so they are all in one place. It would make them a lot easier to find.

Anyway, I did my research on Profiler top selection. I tested the top selection using flat betting and a very conservative modified progressive betting system. The final odds had to be a minimum of 2-1 and a maximum of 30-1. The test was run for Hollywood Park from Nov. 6th to Nov 29th. This was done by hand,race by race and was labor intensive. I tested for Profiler top selection being bet to win and to place.

Top selection bet to win, cash % = 31.25%
$2 Flat bets = profit of $51.80
Progressive betting = profit of $97.10

Top selection bet to place, cash % = 50%
$2 Flat bets = profit of $10.00
Progressive betting = profit of $22.90

I used the database sold in the Thorotech store and set the profiler to a minimum of 20 races and used TSN data. 80 races met the testing requirements.

Post if this type of research report is helpful to you or is it a waste of space on the board?

Will,
You must be kidding. Of course your effort is valuable. Anyone who doesn't think so must be totally undisciplined in money management. Dreamers might think they can realize better profits but aren't likely to divulge anything other than "once upon a time" histories. Thanks for sharing so generously and tipping everyone on how to improve their game with a little sobriety and sweat equity. One really nice thing about ES is that it speeds up actual handicapping of multiple tracks while still allowing time for analysis. Good luck everyone, I hope you appreciate the efforts of people like Nathan and especially Will for these unrewarded bonuses.

Sorry, the last word in that post was supposed to be contributions vs. bonuses.

Will, I think your work has tremendous value and I certainly appreciate it.

By keeping your analysis of horses going off between 2-1 and 30-1 you have sort of weeded out any really long shots that might have skewed your results.

If you'll look at the below site (its under the Equisim - Using, Oddsline thread)


http://thorotech.com/eve/forums?a=tpc&s=451608406&f=772607226&m=4386034761



and if you and JimG put your heads together, you may very well find the keys to the bank.

Please keep up the good work and keep posting for lazy bums like me.

http://thorotech.com/eve/forums?a=tpc&s=451608406&f=772607226&m=4386034761

again.


It's Hdcper that gets the credit for the above thread.

Sorry.

SteveF...I'm sure Bill doesn't mind me getting the credit

Will...Research like yours is one of the reasons I look at the Equisim board every time I turn the computer on. You, John, and Bill do a great service in sharing what tremendous research you do. I've done some myself in the past with other software and can attest to the time manual research takes. Thanks as always for sharing!

Jim

Hi All,

Glad to see all the positive feedback for Will's profiler testing for Hol and I totally agree this research is very meaningful. Also Steve for your benefit, Will, John and myself have been working together for sometime since we were all involved in the Team One research.

Just for a quick comparison, I ran a similar test for the same days 11/6 through 11/29 for Hol using my Bris database (Will is using TSN). My filters were set (filters checked) at Track, Distance Category, Surface, Class and my minimum was set at 1 (since I already had this database build). In the display field all categories were on except Simulation Winner. Also the show only bold was checked and the bold win % set at 20.

My results were also excellent at 65 plays, 18 winners, 28% win rate, +85.60 dollars profit on two dollar flat bets (did not test progressive method) and +65.85 ROI. Smallest payoff of $6 while the largest was $32.40.

Basically I feel that specific subsets exist for most tracks and research tends to lead or provide a method for finding these profitable subsets. However, it is also apparent to me that these subsets are back fitting and future results are certainly not guaranteed.

For example, Steve mentioned my previously posted research which reflected that playing multiple tracks top profiler pick at 4/1 or above returned a nice profit from 8/1 through 11/19 (my original testing period). However, I have monitored these same plays since 11/19 (from 11/20 through 12/1) and results have been anything but stellar. The results are as follows:

108 plays
11 wins (10%)
-$50.20
-23.24 ROI

So can database testing result in profits? My answer would be maybe. Find a profitable play, but then starting monitoring its results and see what the future brings. Further, I feel that everything goes through cycles, something like riding a roller coaster. Can we monitor these swings and identify when to get on (the upward swing) and when to get off (before the downward swing or losses occur)? Guess like playing the stock market or any game of chance; know when to bet and when to quit.

Further, can we analyze the factors in the profiler analysis, such as E1, E2, and all the combo of factors that are available and improve our understanding of just what factors or combos are solid moneymakers. Or what factors identify false favorites, solid favorites, good long shot plays and many other ideas each of us has to share with other Equisim users.

So everyone where do we want to go and what tools can Nathan provide to get us there. We already have a great bag of tools, a large group of knowledgeable users and a programmer second to none. Lets get going and find out how to beat this game by beating the drum to a tune different than the general public (our competition).

Hdcper

I don't take anything away from anyone on the testing. It is great and very much appreciated, but how about putting the horse in front of the cart. Post it before they run and tell me what you are betting.
Some of you have to do a track everyday, share what is going on before it happens. I promise I won't ruin your odds, but it would be nice if everyone here could see your results before the race is run.
You may think I am a smart ass for posting this but really that is not the case, after the race is over I can tell you what I should have done. Lets see what you can do before the race is run.

CoalMiner:

Prior to "posting picks", don't you think it is a good idea to get a handle on what might be working at a given track. Some would view blindly posting picks, as "putting the cart before the horse", until one can get a handle on what factors might be working at a given track in a given class, etc.

I can quickly run sims and profilers for a track and post picks, in advance, but what does that prove with respect to betting if you have no confidence level set for making a bet. in short, it's nice to know what is winning in advance of betting and a good way to do that is through research. What is unique about what Will, John, and Bill are doing is sharing it with all the users here. Most people that do that work would not share. I am very grateful for their sharing.

Jim

I agree with you 100 percent but how many track and how many races does it take to get the horse in front of the cart. will has already show what it says, post them before hand they should all be great.

Will has already given the paramaters for his research. If your interested in what the picks would be in the future, all you have to do is use his research parameters for the track of your choice. It's just a little work CoalMiner...your up for it. In fact, you could report back on how they do.

I suspect what your really looking for is for someone to post picks, and you can too...and the winner will have "bragging rights". Nothing wrong with that....I think you and Weatherman should have a picking contest. I would make you the 4-5 favorite over a week of races. Go for it!

One thing this has done is get some people awake.
I was wondering if there where any user on here.
If everyone in life agreed what a useless life. We would all drive fords, and look like Elvis.

Does that mean you and Weatherman are not going to have a contest? or that you are not going to post some picks based on Will's research and report back?

does anyone use Simulation picks? the profiler works but should be able to tune it also. I keep track of fairgrounds and hollywood by distance & class for trifectas pick3's and 4's and 6's i make very few win bets. i think how we keep track of our way of making money you have too.. we all i guess do it different. [joke removed for brevity] sounds a little like using equ and profiler we're all trying to get there but were using different grips...

[This message was edited by Nathan Miserocchi on December 03, 2002 at 10:57 PM.]

Well I don't know about anyone else, but posts like Weatherman's just don't make my day.

I guess I could ignore it, but why should I have to waste my time dealing with it.

Just my opinion,

Bill

hcdper that what this forum sounds like a joke, not any one will give a straight answer. one reason i post equisim and profier selections not to be laughed at but to see if you or Will or anyone else are getting the same or close results, but you seem to better at running test than trying to work with others to make this a better profit making program, when i post selections thats just what i start with for making my bets and i make a living playing the horses and i've hit more pick6's and 5 of 6's this year than i have win bets, because i don't want a 10% to 30% return on my money.

Basically -- I like Jokes. I tell people jokes. Most of them are dirty.
But, I dont' tell dirty jokes in public places. And I view these forums as public places.
Sometimes I swear in public places, especially where I work (and I don't want to quibble over the definition of public/private - its a publically traded company, ok?). That's a fault of mine, and many others. And, to an extent, I think we have to live with that occasionally (because, though its a public place, its my public place). If I told jokes, I'd probably get fired and/or sued for harrassment. Anyway. Carry on.

-N

Tell you what Coal Miner, I will do part of the work if you will do the rest. I will post my profiler top selection if you will post the days results. There can be no scratches because that changes the profiler top selection sometimes. The horse must go off at odds of 2 min and 30 maximum to be counted. Interested?

For those who are interested:
This is the profiler export for Wednesday December 4th at Hollywood.


Race Description
Track:Hol Date: 12/4/02 Race: 1 Surface: Dirt Class: Maiden Special Weight
Purse: 41000 Dist: 6.0 furlongs
Calculations: Individual WPS Sex Restr: None Age Restr: 3yr olds and up
Shape: E - Lone Speed Speed Index: Slow Style Count: E - 1, EP - 0, P - 1, S - 2, NA - 2 # Races: 100 Max: 100
Average Fractions: Races at Dist: 82 F1= :00.00 F2= :00.00 F3= :00.00 Final= 1:11.14 Filters Used
Track Surface Dist. Cat. Max Profiles No Off Trks
Horse Analysis (Individual WPS Calculations)
1 Commander's Flag(P 1) ML: 1.4 Profiler Odds: 0.65 Profiler Value: 0.76 Rank: 1
2 Time To Strike(E 7) ML: 1.6 Profiler Odds: 6.54 Profiler Value: 0.08 Rank: 2
3 Ice Fella(S 0) ML: 10.0 Profiler Odds: 8.56 Profiler Value: 0.06 Rank: 3
5 Daddysprideandjoy(S 0) ML: 20.0 Profiler Odds: 9.65 Profiler Value: 0.05 Rank: 4
6 Mackelwane(NA 4) ML: 6.0 Profiler Odds: 20.16 Profiler Value: 0.02 Rank: 5
7 Icy Skies(NA 1) ML: 5.0 Profiler Odds: 20.16 Profiler Value: 0.02 Rank: 5


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race Description
Track:Hol Date: 12/4/02 Race: 2 Surface: Turf Class: Allowance
Purse: 43000 Dist: 5.5 furlongs
Calculations: Individual WPS Sex Restr: Girls and Ladies Age Restr: 3yr olds and up
Shape: EEE - 3+ E Speed Index: Fast Style Count: E - 3, EP - 0, P - 1, S - 0, NA - 3 # Races: 59 Max: 100
Average Fractions: Races at Dist: 59 F1= :00.00 F2= :00.00 F3= :00.00 Final= 1:02.44 Filters Used
Track Surface Dist. Cat. Max Profiles No Off Trks
Horse Analysis (Individual WPS Calculations)
6 Grant Marty A Wish(E 8) ML: 2.5 Profiler Odds: 1.12 Profiler Value: 0.45 Rank: 1
4 Trebia(NA 8) ML: 8.0 Profiler Odds: 3.45 Profiler Value: 0.14 Rank: 2
1 Keepers Hill(NA 8) ML: 2.0 Profiler Odds: 4.08 Profiler Value: 0.12 Rank: 3
3 Secret Approval(E 7) ML: 3.5 Profiler Odds: 5.08 Profiler Value: 0.10 Rank: 4
5 Centerofattention(P 2) ML: 10.0 Profiler Odds: 6.34 Profiler Value: 0.08 Rank: 5
7 Miss Tropics(E 8) ML: 5.0 Profiler Odds: 6.34 Profiler Value: 0.08 Rank: 5
2 Rose Charvier(NA 5) ML: 15.0 Profiler Odds: 16.51 Profiler Value: 0.03 Rank: 7


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race Description
Track:Hol Date: 12/4/02 Race: 3 Surface: Dirt Class: Maiden Claiming
Purse: 15000 Dist: 7.0 furlongs
Calculations: Individual WPS Sex Restr: None Age Restr: 3yr olds and up
Shape: EP + P - No E, 1 EP, 1+ P Speed Index: Slow Style Count: E - 0, EP - 1, P - 1, S - 5, NA - 2 # Races: 101 Max: 100
Average Fractions: Races at Dist: 27 F1= :00.00 F2= :00.00 F3= :00.00 Final= 1:23.47 Filters Used
Track Surface Dist. Cat. Max Profiles No Off Trks
Horse Analysis (Individual WPS Calculations)
6 Mark Of A Warrior(S 0) ML: 3.5 Profiler Odds: 1.87 Profiler Value: 0.27 Rank: 1
4 All In Favor(S 3) ML: 4.0 Profiler Odds: 2.75 Profiler Value: 0.18 Rank: 2
3 Song Minister(EP 1) ML: 3.0 Profiler Odds: 3.86 Profiler Value: 0.13 Rank: 3
5 Smokin Bull(S 1) ML: 20.0 Profiler Odds: 3.91 Profiler Value: 0.13 Rank: 4
7 El Prado In Action(S 0) ML: 5.0 Profiler Odds: 4.44 Profiler Value: 0.11 Rank: 5
9 Siete Slew(P 1) ML: 8.0 Profiler Odds: 6.45 Profiler Value: 0.08 Rank: 6
2 Topsoff Don'tshake(NA 0) ML: 4.0 Profiler Odds: 7.21 Profiler Value: 0.07 Rank: 7
1 Max Raj(S 0) ML: 20.0 Profiler Odds: 14.61 Profiler Value: 0.03 Rank: 8
8 To B Negotiated(NA 0) ML: 30.0 Profiler Odds: 50.00 Profiler Value: 0.00 Rank: 9


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race Description
Track:Hol Date: 12/4/02 Race: 4 Surface: Dirt Class: Claiming
Purse: 13000 Dist: 6.0 furlongs
Calculations: Individual WPS Sex Restr: None Age Restr: 3yr olds only
Shape: EEE - 3+ E Speed Index: Normal Style Count: E - 5, EP - 3, P - 1, S - 1, NA - 0 # Races: 100 Max: 100
Average Fractions: Races at Dist: 82 F1= :00.00 F2= :00.00 F3= :00.00 Final= 1:11.14 Filters Used
Track Surface Dist. Cat. Max Profiles No Off Trks
Horse Analysis (Individual WPS Calculations)
9 Tin And Tonic(EP 3) ML: 1.8 Profiler Odds: 0.77 Profiler Value: 0.65 Rank: 1
8 Mirek(E 6) ML: 3.5 Profiler Odds: 3.08 Profiler Value: 0.16 Rank: 2
2 Blue Warrior(E 7) ML: 15.0 Profiler Odds: 7.08 Profiler Value: 0.07 Rank: 3
5 Classic Run(E 4) ML: 8.0 Profiler Odds: 10.44 Profiler Value: 0.05 Rank: 4
10 Uncle Johnny(EP 2) ML: 5.0 Profiler Odds: 20.03 Profiler Value: 0.02 Rank: 5
3 Percy(E 5) ML: 12.0 Profiler Odds: 21.82 Profiler Value: 0.02 Rank: 6
7 Zanshin(EP 4) ML: 20.0 Profiler Odds: 21.82 Profiler Value: 0.02 Rank: 6
1 Italian Stogie(S 1) ML: 12.0 Profiler Odds: 50.00 Profiler Value: 0.00 Rank: 8
4 Mountain Flag(E 2) ML: 15.0 Profiler Odds: 50.00 Profiler Value: 0.00 Rank: 8
6 Bold Airman(P 0) ML: 8.0 Profiler Odds: 50.00 Profiler Value: 0.00 Rank: 8


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race Description
Track:Hol Date: 12/4/02 Race: 5 Surface: Turf Class: Allowance
Purse: 45000 Dist: 12.0 furlongs
Calculations: Individual WPS Sex Restr: None Age Restr: 3yr olds and up
Shape: E + EP - Lone E with EP(s) Speed Index: Fast Style Count: E - 1, EP - 1, P - 2, S - 1, NA - 2 # Races: 17 Max: 100
Average Fractions: Races at Dist: 9 F1= :00.00 F2= :00.00 F3= :00.00 Final= 2:27.35 Filters Used
Track Surface Dist. Cat. Max Profiles No Off Trks
Horse Analysis (Individual WPS Calculations)
6 Mont Saint Michel(EP 5) ML: 1.4 Profiler Odds: 1.23 Profiler Value: 0.41 Rank: 1
5 Tell Them Nothing(E 5) ML: 12.0 Profiler Odds: 2.66 Profiler Value: 0.19 Rank: 2
4 Fire Storm(NA 8) ML: 6.0 Profiler Odds: 4.00 Profiler Value: 0.12 Rank: 3
2 Red Wing Evan(P 3) ML: 4.0 Profiler Odds: 6.17 Profiler Value: 0.08 Rank: 4
1 Tenaja Trail(NA 8) ML: 6.0 Profiler Odds: 6.30 Profiler Value: 0.08 Rank: 5
3 Saucy Cat(S 3) ML: 8.0 Profiler Odds: 8.41 Profiler Value: 0.06 Rank: 6
7 Leprechaun Kid(P 1) ML: 4.5 Profiler Odds: 8.41 Profiler Value: 0.06 Rank: 6


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race Description
Track:Hol Date: 12/4/02 Race: 6 Surface: Dirt Class: Claiming
Purse: 26000 Dist: 6.0 furlongs
Calculations: Individual WPS Sex Restr: None Age Restr: 2yr olds only
Shape: EEE - 3+ E Speed Index: Fast Style Count: E - 4, EP - 2, P - 1, S - 1, NA - 0 # Races: 100 Max: 100
Average Fractions: Races at Dist: 82 F1= :00.00 F2= :00.00 F3= :00.00 Final= 1:11.14 Filters Used
Track Surface Dist. Cat. Max Profiles No Off Trks
Horse Analysis (Individual WPS Calculations)
6 Windscore(E 3) ML: 4.0 Profiler Odds: 1.23 Profiler Value: 0.41 Rank: 1
7 Global Games(P 1) ML: 20.0 Profiler Odds: 3.05 Profiler Value: 0.16 Rank: 2
5 Blue Souvie(E 6) ML: 6.0 Profiler Odds: 3.51 Profiler Value: 0.14 Rank: 3
4 Obermeister(EP 7) ML: 2.0 Profiler Odds: 3.84 Profiler Value: 0.13 Rank: 4
8 Spaced Out(E 8) ML: 10.0 Profiler Odds: 7.63 Profiler Value: 0.07 Rank: 5
3 Tioga Lake(EP 5) ML: 10.0 Profiler Odds: 14.07 Profiler Value: 0.04 Rank: 6
1 Fringe Comment(S 0) ML: 10.0 Profiler Odds: 18.14 Profiler Value: 0.03 Rank: 7
2 Give Away Joe(E 6) ML: 2.5 Profiler Odds: 18.14 Profiler Value: 0.03 Rank: 7


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race Description
Track:Hol Date: 12/4/02 Race: 7 Surface: Turf Class: Claiming
Purse: 55000 Dist: 5.5 furlongs
Calculations: Individual WPS Sex Restr: None Age Restr: 3yr olds and up
Shape: EEE - 3+ E Speed Index: Slow Style Count: E - 3, EP - 1, P - 0, S - 2, NA - 0 # Races: 59 Max: 100
Average Fractions: Races at Dist: 59 F1= :00.00 F2= :00.00 F3= :00.00 Final= 1:02.44 Filters Used
Track Surface Dist. Cat. Max Profiles No Off Trks
Horse Analysis (Individual WPS Calculations)
4 Ecstatic(E 4) ML: 2.0 Profiler Odds: 1.29 Profiler Value: 0.39 Rank: 1
3 Slew Of The Night(E 8) ML: 5.0 Profiler Odds: 1.30 Profiler Value: 0.39 Rank: 2
1 Not For Me(S 0) ML: 8.0 Profiler Odds: 6.36 Profiler Value: 0.08 Rank: 3
2 Jentzen(S 2) ML: 8.0 Profiler Odds: 6.36 Profiler Value: 0.08 Rank: 3
5 With Iris(EP 3) ML: 2.5 Profiler Odds: 14.50 Profiler Value: 0.03 Rank: 5
6 Most Likely(E 3) ML: 3.0 Profiler Odds: 14.50 Profiler Value: 0.03 Rank: 5


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race Description
Track:Hol Date: 12/4/02 Race: 8 Surface: Dirt Class: Maiden Claiming
Purse: 21000 Dist: 6.0 furlongs
Calculations: Individual WPS Sex Restr: Girls Age Restr: 2yr olds only
Shape: E - Lone Speed Speed Index: Slow Style Count: E - 1, EP - 0, P - 2, S - 3, NA - 4 # Races: 100 Max: 100
Average Fractions: Races at Dist: 82 F1= :00.00 F2= :00.00 F3= :00.00 Final= 1:11.14 Filters Used
Track Surface Dist. Cat. Max Profiles No Off Trks
Horse Analysis (Individual WPS Calculations)
10 Starship Smokester(S 0) ML: 3.5 Profiler Odds: 2.03 Profiler Value: 0.25 Rank: 1
5 High Speed Pursuit(E 5) ML: 6.0 Profiler Odds: 3.21 Profiler Value: 0.16 Rank: 2
4 Princess Nicolette(P 2) ML: 10.0 Profiler Odds: 3.60 Profiler Value: 0.14 Rank: 3
9 Miss Lucky Molar(S 0) ML: 5.0 Profiler Odds: 4.54 Profiler Value: 0.11 Rank: 4
2 Fatal Caper(S 0) ML: 4.5 Profiler Odds: 5.34 Profiler Value: 0.09 Rank: 5
3 Alegrita(NA 0) ML: 6.0 Profiler Odds: 5.61 Profiler Value: 0.09 Rank: 6
8 Don't Tell Wendy(NA 0) ML: 5.0 Profiler Odds: 6.75 Profiler Value: 0.07 Rank: 7
6 Go Tiff Go(NA 0) ML: 15.0 Profiler Odds: 10.95 Profiler Value: 0.05 Rank: 8
7 Dominated Girl(NA 0) ML: 20.0 Profiler Odds: 10.95 Profiler Value: 0.05 Rank: 8
1 Famous Woman(P 2) ML: 12.0 Profiler Odds: 50.00 Profiler Value: 0.00 Rank: 10


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"If everyone in life agreed what a useless life. We would all drive fords, and look like Elvis."

Now I am going to have to sell my Escort and Shave my Sideburns! Thank you...Thank you Very much!!!!

Just Another Horse player