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EquiSim Fractions are more accurate than DRF fractions
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Steward
Graded Stakes
Picture of Nathan M.
Posted
Folks,

Someone recently asked me to clarify what looked like serious differences in DRF fractions and the fractions reported by EquiSim. I haven't given the DRF fractions much thought for a while, but, now that I'm looking at them, boy are they bad.

First, they are reported in 1/5 seconds. At least the one's I was looking at today. That's .20 second intervals. Secondly, I have good reason to believe that they do NOT ROUND the time (recorded in 100s of seconds). They TRUNCATE it. Here's a shining example of how badly this method works.

Go to BRIS and look at an Instant Chart. They show you the running time of a race in the 1/5 seconds and also in 100s. You'll note that they do NOT round the numbers. For example, Calder 8/4, race 1 (you don't have to look far) the second fraction was 47.76. If you were to Round this time, you'd get 47 and 4/5 second. But the Bris chart reports it as 47 and 3/5 second, or 47.60 seconds -- that's a length of horse difference!

Now, I'm not 100% sure that DRF gets their fractions this way (by truncating instead of rounding). Given reports from others, and the way BRIS is displaying the times, I'm suspecting this is the case.

OK, so how does EquiSim do it? The data files EquiSim uses report the times in 100s. However, there's not enough space on the form to print a line if 2 decimal digits were used. So, EquiSim ROUNDS to the the nearest tenth of a second. So, the times you are looking at in EquiSim will never be more than 5/100s of a second off the recorded time. On average, they would only be 2.5/100s of a second off. That amount of time isn't worth worrying about -- .19 seconds is.

-Nathan
 
Posts: 1981 | Location: North East OH | Registered: July 23, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Graded Stakes
Picture of Will
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Isn't .05 seconds about a quarter of a length?
 
Posts: 285 | Registered: July 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Steward
Graded Stakes
Picture of Nathan M.
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Goes back to an old argument that's really not an argument at all. 1/5 of a second (.2) is held to be the time it takes a horse to run one length. After doing the math, this is ridiculously slow. So, .05 = 1/4 length is also too slow.

EquiSim is very concerned about the amount of time each length of horse is worth. Calculating individual horse fractions is one such place it is important. So, it calculates this time dynamically by using a set distance for a horse length (I forget exactly what it uses, I could look it up) and then looking at how fast __each particular portion_ of a race is run. This might be information some of you are interested in so I'll see about somehow bringing it out in the user interface someday.

Now, if your questions is meant to ask -- gee, .05 seconds is quite a bit of time in horse racing, about 1/4 of a length or so -- my answer is, maybe it is. DRF seems to think that .2 seconds isn't that big of a deal, and the average number of hundreds of seconds lost due to rounding won't be .05, but more like .025. 25 milliseconds isn't, in my opinion, a large amount. I could, however, display fractions to the 100s of a second. To do so you will need to give up something else in the pace lines in order to fit them on one 8.5 x 11 piece of paper. Perhaps I'll make it an optional display feature in the future.
-Nathan

[note -- originally, I wrote that I didn't think 250 milliseconds wasn't a large amount of time. I meant 25 milliseconds).

[This message was edited by Nathan Miserocchi on August 06, 2002 at 01:30 PM.]
 
Posts: 1981 | Location: North East OH | Registered: July 23, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
JC
ALWN1X
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Nathan thanks for resolving the issue as regarding which service is accurate. I would be one that would like the option for 100ths, and I hope that it can be made available, maybe in the formula view or so other new feature..
thanks again, I appreciate your efforts, you really provide an efficient and effective support system...
 
Posts: 3 | Location: Elk Grove, Ca.,USA | Registered: July 24, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Graded Stakes
Picture of Will
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I can live with 0.05 seconds. If it is that close then I will Pass or go for Value.
 
Posts: 285 | Registered: July 25, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Steward
Graded Stakes
Picture of Nathan M.
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Version 3.5 of EquiSim will include a command in the Form View Menu to turn ON fractions in 100s.

The Fractions view, BTW, has always displayed fractions in 100s.

-Nathan
 
Posts: 1981 | Location: North East OH | Registered: July 23, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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