Just curious how many of you look for horses in
Form.

How long does the average horse retain their form? Number of races and works before they
go dull?

IMHO there are MANY factors that can lead to
a Win or Loss, but if the horse is not in form it would take some racing LUCK to Win.

Been really concentrating on this area of late and could use some outside opinions!

This was discussed a ways back at Larry's board. It would be great to revisit it, but, I have to say, I'm not sure what I want to do with it (because I'm interested in the statistical approach -- one that could be programmed).

There's the Beyer "3 and out" approach. That is, if a horses speed figures improve, or decline, for 3 straight, then there is a very good chance that the pattern will stop in the next race. There's the patterns that whatcha-ma-call him talked about (mostly non-sense, IMHO) where some horses would run one good, one bad, or two bad, one good, etc.. There's lots of ways to look at "form", I wish I could find one that held well.

On that note, I am looking at Form from a larger perspective. That is, I'm currently trying to find out the which, when, and why and where of "abilities" that are key performance indicators. Actually, I don't care about the why, if I can find the tracks, the abilities, and when they are performing well (before they stop doing so), I'd be very happy. In some ways this is like looking at the "form" of a particular type of race.

-Nathan

I really only care about figuring out when they are going to come "back to form". I look for "3rd back from layoff" and a quick turn around by a trainer. If I see a horse that gets a quick turn (5-12 days and races again) and its 3rd back from a layoff, Look out and watch for good odds. The quick turn is the real key. The trainer knows he is ready. If he moves him up in company I really like it. The trainer knows he may be able to run his best for this current form cycle. He wants to score with it. This is especially true with older horses. The quick turn and a small bump in class gets me excited.

Hi guys i'am no expert but think if horse pass 1\2 the field in a race his form is good.And if he is 3 or4or race off 30 to45 day layoff i consider no more than 4 race for a form a form cycle.For cheap horse really anything less than graded or stake.As cheaper horse as far as spd fig go inproveing are obvious so look at his last 3 if his last is with in 8 pt of top fig will credit him with his big fig if not then judge him as less.I'am a longshot player so my rule's are kinda loose form spd wise.Hope this is of some use

I have been under the impression that the avg clm horse retains form on the avg of 4 races before they decline. However, its difficult to track.
I firmly believe that a trainer hides the form so-to-speak. For example JustRalph bets on the 3rd back from layoff. Something I do is look for horses running in a Sprint today with 2 races back at which BOTH were Route races. IMHO
Trainers "Hide" their horses form these days and its really hard to determine by using speed numbers.

Bottom line....trainers use races as "workouts" within a race.

One thing I look for, and is programmable, I think, is a horse who has improved his position (by lengths)at the top of the lane in his last three races; that is, 1 race back is better than 2 back and 2 back is better than 3 back.

Perhaps this indication could be done by simply showing in "red type," in the stretch colmn, when this 3-race improvement takes place.

After the 4th race the horse will probably "go out" of form.

"Always On A Roll"

With the exception of his recency criteria, I use Scott's The-Qualified-Horse criteria from his book "Investing at the Race Track" to assess a horse's current form. These criteria appear programmable too.

Don,
Not sure if your trying out the new Formula View that Nathan is working on but if so, can Scott's method be programmed to work in the Formula View? I have never seen this method.

LS

LongShot,

I'm not trying Nathan's new Formula view. My form criteria for a contender as modified from Scott's original ideas are:

The horse meets any of the following in his last race or the race in which he's rated ( if trouble,
wrong surface, etc. in last race )

1. Up close at any two calls. Up close = <3 lengths if sprint; <4l if route.

2. Up close at any call & dropping in class.

3. Gain of 5 or more in either lengths or position or both between 2 consecutive calls and < 6lengths from leader when gain finished.

4. Finished 2nd.

5. < 6 lengths behind at each call & neither gain nor loss of >2 lengths between any 2 consecutive calls ( raced "evenly" ).

I'm not a software guru, but believe this approach is programmable.