Hi All,

Looks like this question has reached PA's board and seems to be getting some activity to say the least.

Anyway I have been thinking about this again and I may have found something that makes sense. So digest it and see if I am missing something in my thought process(inotherwords put holes in my idea, I'm sure I am missing something).

Okay first I decided to try and determine the pace leaders figures for both the E1 and E2. Basically if we used 1 length equals 2 Bris pace points for both the E1 and E2 calls, then the leader ran 95 both at the E1 and E2 calls.

Calculation:

E1(leader's figure)

Fleet Boss 80 + (2*7.3) or roughly 80+15 = 95

Biblical 86 + (2*4.3) or roughly 86+9 = 95

E2(leader's figure)

Fleet Boss 84 + (2*5.5) = 95

Biblical 88 + (2*3.5) = 95

Thus, the leader at both E1 and E2 is 95 and turntime is also 95 since no change in pace figures.

Again I don't know if the pacesetter lead from gate to 2nd call, but if he did his overall pace picture could be based on adding the 95(E1) + 95(turntime) =190

Now Fleet Boss has a turntime of 99 or 95+4(improvement from E1 to E2 84-80) and his overall pace picture could be expressed as 80(E1) + 99(turntime) = 179

Biblical has a turntime of 97 or 95+2 (improvement from E1 to E2 88-86) and his overall pace picture could be expressed as 86 (E1) + 97 = 185

What do you think?

Bill

44.8 100 109.4 100
44.9 99 109.5 99
45.0 98 109.6 98
45.1 97 109.7 97
45.2 96 109.8 96
45.3 95 109.9 95
45.4 94 110.0 94
45.5 93 110.1 93
45.6 92 110.2 92
45.7 91 110.3 91
45.8 90 110.4 90
45.9 89 110.5 89
46.0 88 110.6 88
46.1 87 110.7 87
46.2 86 110.8 86
46.3 85 110.9 85
46.4 84 111.0 84
46.5 83 111.1 83
46.6 82 111.2 82
46.7 81 111.3 81
46.8 80 111.4 80
46.9 79 111.5 79
47.0 78 111.6 78

I got these values from Jerry Stoke's Free Stuff page.
The race went 95 -95, which is 45.3 109.9
TT therefore is 24.6
The 80-84 horse ran a TT of +4. The 80=46.8 and the 84 = 111.0, which mean TT is 24.2, which is 4 points better than the POR 24.6.

If I wasn't doing this, I'd probably be doing something else.

Bill,

I like your concept a lot, and have tried to expand on situations when the E1 of pace leader and E2 of pace leader are different. My problem with Jerry Stokes's charts are they don't appear to correlate with Bris times accurately regarding lengths behind, but it is a valiant attempt.

Basically, Bill you're saying that it is necessary to calculate the First Call Leader, and Second Call Leader Pace Times.

E1 Pace Leader = Pace Fig of horse + (FCBL*2)
E2 Pace Leader = Pace Fig of horse + (SCBL*2)


IF the E1 Pace Leader (95) and E2 Pace Leader (95) were the same this might be the TT formula:

E1 LeaderPace + (Horse E2-HorseE1)

BUT if a pace leader showed a 90 E1 lead time and a 99 E2 lead time, and a horse showed an 84 E1 time and an 80 E2 time, or a loss of 4 pace points, what would his TT time be? After all the horse lost 4 pace points while the leader was gaining 9 pace points.

So here is my proposal.

(E1 LeaderPace + (Horse E2-HorseE1))- accounts for a horse with same pace lead times

(E2 Leader Pace-E1 LeaderPace)- leader's gain

So formula is:

(E1 LeaderPace+ (Horse E2-HorseE1)) - (E2 Leader Pace-E1 LeaderPace)

So in the above example:

A 90 E1 leader and 99 E2 leader. A horse 84 E1 and a horse 80 E2.

(90+(80-84))-(99-90)

(90-4)-9)

86-9 or a 77 Turn Time for the horse against this pace.

Whaddya think?

Well I am not sure who posted this last comment, but seems your calculation is very close with what we started with

E2 + (E2 - E1) = 80 + (80-84) = 76(close to the 77 you show).

However, the more I look at this I continue to find that the E2 pace figure from Bris is extremely high compared to the E1 and Late pace figures (just don't seem to correlate to each other). Let me try to explain further with an example. Looking at the June 26th race at AP(6f) we find the following fractional times.

22.1 45.7 112.3 pace figs of 98 104 79

so first 2f ran in 22.1
second 2f ran in 23.6
last 2f ran in 26.6

obviously Bris is using some sort of pars for each call and a variant to adjust the figures but won't it make more sense for the second pace figure to be low than the E1 since we know in almost all cases the race continues to slow down the further they go.

Maybe I am wrong but because of this, I am not sure if any calculation truly reflects the turn time in relationship to the pace numbers themselves.

Well better get back to looking at tomorrow's races,

Bill

I guess if one uses their calculation consistently and applies it to all horses, it is all relative as it is being applied to all horses in the race. equally.