Hey Nathan,

Me again...another question concerning "FV" possibilities...I asked you earlier about sorting horses by their Bris Running Style and Speed Point designations and you replied that it would be fairly complicated for both the programmer and user to pull-off at this point in time ...I was wondering if there was a way to come up with a workaround by rethinking the problem...would there be any way to add our own "personal number" into the mix even though this number couldn't be found/pulled from the Bris data? For instance, I've come up with a numerical system that describes an E7 as the number "47" an E6 would be a "46"...All E's would start with the number 40 and then you would add on the speed points. All E/P's would start 30, all P's would start at 20, and all S's would start at 10. Each time you would add the speed point number onto the running style number. So if it were possible to add this number next to each horses name at some point in the process (on the racing form or in a special data entry box or maybe a simple look-up table that reads the Bris designation and adds it as a factor)it seems that I could sort them by E's with high speed points down to S's with no speed points. Seeing the horses sorted this way (from my perspective anyways) instantly shows the race shape in a most succinct manner.

I know it's probably too late at this point to make any changes (since you're in the documentation phase and all) and what I'm asking for might not be possible no matter what stage of development you were in, but thought I would ask one more time in just case it might be a viable option.

Kevin

P.S. Just want to thank you for your patience with and quick responses to my previous posts regarding my requests.

Kevin,

I have a suggestion (from Bill) that looks promising when combined with what I know about the new formula view.

First I'll address the notion of "custom numbers". In short, the problem with adding features to allow the addition of custom numbers is that the amount of this information suddenly proliferates (because everyone wants something slightly different). Due to the need to input the custom info manually, all but the most devoted to the use of the custom info would bother doing it.

Here's Bill's suggestion,paraphrased. You could have two columns, one with Quirin Speed Points and the other that pulls the Running Style (E, E/P, etc). Then when you sorted by Quiring Points it would sort pretty much the way you wanted them to. The E8s would be first and so on since E, E/P, P, and S HAPPEN to be in alphabetical order. The only problem is the NA (don't know) style.

Here's where you can do a new FV trick. You can get at the Running Style as an enumeration that happens to go E=0, EP=1, P=2, S=3, NA=4

Further -- you could derive a different number that would further separate the horses. Note we are taking the difference from 50 here just because it makes the E horses have the highest value this way:

50 - (($hrRaceStyle * 10) + $hrEarlySpeedPts).

After substitution, the expression for an E8 horse becomes 50 - ((0 * 10) + 8) = 42.

An EP7 would be: 50 - (1 * 10) + 7 = 33

What do you think?

"Whatcha working on?"

"I'm working on a way to sort horses by running styles and speed points"

"Sorting horses by running styles and speed points??? Brilliant!"

"Brilliant!"


Nathan,

Thanks for the quick reply and good news...you and Bill (thanks Bill) have made my day!

I guess I should have just asked if I'll be able to use/manipulate each bit of data on the comma-delimited files such as:

210 BRIS Run Style designation 211 "Quirin" style Speed Points

will that be the case? If so, I'll be able to start spending more time now dreaming up my ultimate figure array and spend less time bugging you with my questions.

Also, should I be brushing up on my spreadsheet formula jargon/syntax or will "FV" be using it's own fomula "language" to set parameters?

Finally, (yes, I should know better than to ask) is "FV" more likely to be released in the next couple of months or is 6 months a more accurate time table? OK, just forget I asked.

Thanks again for the good news.

KevinKD


P.S.: For what it's worth...I've been handicapping horses on and off again for the last 15 years...I've read most of the major handicapping books but spent most of my time studying and working with Sartin/Brohamer/Pizzola pace/energy/ect. concepts. I'm finally at a point in the journey where I want to see the figures/ratings ect. presented in a way that makes sense to me rather than trying to make sense of somebody elses sense of order. I'm not looking for that magic number or black box set-up...I just want to be able to look at a race and figure out, in the least tedious way, how it will probably run and then pull out of the race as much money as possible depending on the scenario. I'm excited at the prospect of your Formula View allowing me to spend more time using my mind to handicap rather than spending it re-organizing somebody else's sense of what is and what isn't important. Thanks for keeping this control freak from trying to become a programmer himself.

Kevin,

I believe Nathan's idea could be slightly changed by making the formula:

40 - ($hrRaceStyle * 10) + ($hrEarlySpeedPts)

After substitution, the Early speed points end up getting added instead of subtracted as in the orginal formula so you get the following:

40 - (0 * 10) + 8 = 48 for a E8 horse

40 - (1 * 10) + 7 = 37 for EP7 horse

This should give you exactly what you were looking for.

Everyone start brainstorming, with formula view it appears almost any creative idea can be programmed and displayed to our personal liking.

Great idea Kevin!

Bill

Kevin,

Yes, giving you access to the info of the data files is the goal of FV. Or, one of them. And, I'll qualify, _most_ of the data in the data cards. I'm sure that there are a thing or two that is not exposed that someone will want (which I will probably expose when the demand is there). The FV will also allow access to all of the other info that ES provides (profiler stats, etc.). So, yes, it truly is one step closer to displaying the info the way you want it and in a way that makes sense to you.

The documentation is "complete", so, what the hey, I'll post it here in a few minutes so people can get more of a feel about what I've been talking about.


Perhaps more importantly, through the use of "expressions" and the custom functions you'll be able to create "systems" on the fly. If (and when) I produce a DB export module you'll further be able to test out these systems rapidly (without resorting to paper and pencil, and time, time, time).

For example, here's a thought that came to me when I was testing the hDEV (standard deviation function) function today (which, btw, I broke so I'm glad I re-tested it!). Do horses that have a smaller standard deviation in their Speed Figures for say, their races in the last 3 months, fair better than those with a large standard deviation? That is, is it easier for a trainer to place a horse if that trainer knows, more or less, the speed figure the animal will run? Standard Deviation of the speed figure might disclose that info. So, currently FV will give you a handy function - hDEV - that will let you get at the standard deviation of, well, just about anything. It will also let you tailor it to include only certain types of past performances, if you wish. Right now you could then do the paper and pencil thing (although FV will be released with the ability to export the spread sheet to comma delimited files) to see if this angle is worth anything. But, if you could rig it up to send directly to a db, and then could develop/get developed, a simple DB front end, you could have your answer to this question and any other in a matter of minutes. Pretty nifty, IMO.

OK, got off on a tangent there. What else.

The syntax is VB Script with a little extension - but don't let that scare you. Creating an "expression" is as simple as choosing the variable you want,and then doing something to it, if you want to. For example, $ppSpeedFig * 2 takes the speed figure for the past performance (represented by a row in a Past Perf style spread sheet) and multiplies it by 2. Pretty simple. The built in functions get a little bit more complex, but with documentation in hand they are a breeze. Want the Average speed figure a horse ran? Its hAVG("ppSpeedFig",...). The '...' here is a set of parameters that "filter" that past performances. You can opt to only use pps that were run on the same surface, same track, distance ranges, "age" range, and even min/max value ranges.

Better still, I bit the bullet it and included a sort of "intellisense" into the expression editor. When you're typing your expression, to include a variable (such as ppSpeedFig) you need to prefix it with a $ ($ppSpeedFig). When you do that (type the $ character) up pops a list of all the variables. The list is unobtrusive (you can ignore it and keep typing). This gives you a quick way of finding the variable you are after without having to refer to the documentation constantly. Likewise, functions are prefixed with a #. So #hDEV is the function to use to get the standard deviation for some values about a horse (there's an rDEV as well....). When you type #, up pops the list of all the custom functions. When you select a function, it gets inserted in your expression along with the default parameters for the function. Pretty slick.

Then there's all the built in VB Script functions (Rnd for a random number). Folks can just go nuts with those, and plenty of VB Script syntax tutorials exist on the web for those that just want to go completely bonkers.

I hate the question - when will it be released - because that puts me on the spot and then something might happen (I get really busy, find something complicated that needs fixing, etc..). Nonetheless, progress is being made. The documentation is pretty good (at least, for current customers. I still have yet to do much to promote/explain Version FOUR! on the web site!).
Today I:
* Fixed the problem with changes in multiply selected pacelines being remembered correctly.
* Moved the settings that control whether the "stock" abilities are to be "used" or not from OUT of the general settings database and into the SPECIFIC profiler database. (this was a hassle before because you effectively had one set of settings that governed whether all profiler dbs should _use_ each of the stock abilities. A pain for folks that wanted different settings for each DB).
* Made some minor improvements to speed up the "drawing" code in some of the reports.
* Oh, I decided to add in the "Extended Ability Stats" stuff. If turned on, this will push data about the Profiler abilities into your database. It will cause the size of the database to grow faster, but you will be able to use SPAT to do analysis on the ability stats. Honestly, I forgot exactly how these work - but Bill can refresh my memory as he was the catalyst to get them into the program.

So, in the way of major things I wanted to get done, its done. Still a bunch more things to do to productize v5,but its coming along strong. Something should be ready by the end of July.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Nathan M.,

First off,

Thanks Bill for your updated formula idea for my RS/QSpt sorting dilemma! It's nice to know there'll be help out there while figuring out how to turn our ideas into useable formulas.

and Nathan,

Thanks so much for your enthusiastic update and your posting of the new "Formula View" overview pages. You've given me just what I need to get myself prepared for your program's release. Guess it's time to learn how to speak & think VBScript...

KevinKD

So, if I wanted to know what the Bris 2nd call PACE RATING of the RACE (POR) might be for a horse "POR =(Horses E2 pace rating) + (the Horse's beaten lengths at the 2nd call * 2)"...what would that "FV" formula look like? I will try to figure it out on my own first, but will check back to see what others come up with. Will trying to do Sprints and Routes in the same column make the formula super complex?

I've spent the last 5 years mastering "Photoshop" and I'm afraid my syntax/spreadsheet/formula skills have left me.

Kevin,

I'm really hoping that one won't need to be a VB Script master, or even novice, to use the Formula View. Then again, the more you know, the more power to you!

Mixing sprints and routes _might_ be too confusing for one view -- that's why there are "assignment filters" for setting the view to each race. You could have one template that gets assigned to sprints, one to routes - automagically. Or you could get more detailed (sprints at BEL vs. Sprints at HOL, etc.).

I'm not sure what you mean by "PACE RATING of the RACE" -- is this the PAR for the race, or something derived from looking at ALL the E2 ratings of each horse in the race? Either way, FV can do it.

Here's a simple expression that displays the horse's E2 rating in a sprint + the horses beaten lenghts multiplied by 2. The formula would work on each pace line.So each row in the FV would represent a pace line:

$ppPace4 + ($ppBtnLengthsFinish * 2)

That is -- get the 4 furlong pace figure for the past performance (that's E2 for sprints) and add it to the horse's beaten lenghts at the finish multiplied by two.
If you wanted beaten lengths at the 2nd call you could use ppBtnLengths2 instead of ppBtnLengthsFinish.

Nathan and Kevin,

I am sure Kevin is calculating the pace of each specific past performance line, in otherwords, if the horse being reviewed is not on the lead at the 2nd call the adjustment for Beaten Lengths will determine the E2 figure of the pace setter for that specific race. If I am reading Kevin right, he wants to determine how a horse performs in a race of a specific pace and wants to compare various running lines against the expected pace today. Obviously there is more to it than that, but a logical way of looking at how a horse might perform today.

Also thought I would comment on Nathan's below post:

Oh, I decided to add in the "Extended Ability Stats" stuff. If turned on, this will push data about the Profiler abilities into your database. It will cause the size of the database to grow faster, but you will be able to use SPAT to do analysis on the ability stats. Honestly, I forgot exactly how these work - but Bill can refresh my memory as he was the catalyst to get them into the program.

With regard to this, I believe everyone will find this an exciting addition. Basically, it allows you to use the Spat controls to look at say all Best E2 horses and how they performed with regard to win percentage and ROI for the entire database, just one track, a specific time frame, various odds ranges, certain surface, distance, etc. Further, almost any specific individual factor can be analyzed just like you currently do for Profiler, Simulator, etc.(only restriction is you can only look at the top horse having these factors, for example, could not look at all the second best horses in say E2 rating).

So how do you use it? First I recommend you start by building a new database from scratch since once you turn the Store Extended Ability Stats on, it will not go back and store this information for existing races already stored to an existing database. So create a new database and name it something that makes sense to you. When you setup the profiler preferences for this database, do everything you did for your other databases but also check mark "Store Extended Ability Stats" under the more config tab.

Once the database is built, go to Spat controls and you will find all the new Profiler abilities listed in the selection type dropdown menu. Click what factor you want to analyze and click analyze. Realize you can tweek the analysis by selecting track, odds ranges, dates, surfaces, etc.

Anyone with questions, feel free to ask for help.

Bill

Nathan,

Bill understands exactly what I'm trying to achieve...and he does a much better job of explaining it than I do myself (thanks again Bill). Your formula suggestion will work for horses who have all sprints in their PP's but what about horses who have both sprints and route races in the mix...I still want to know what the Pace of the Race Rating (actual pace rating for the leader at the 2nd call for each race in a horses pp's) was for those route races as well...wouldn't I need to use "$ppPace6"for route races instead of "$ppPace4"? Do I need to have a qualifer in the formula that says if race is less than 8f use "$ppPace4"and if equal to or greater than 8f use "$ppPace6"? So if this query is possible what would that formula look like?

I know I'm getting way ahead of myself, product isn't even out and I'm already trying to use it...and I understand that this is exactly the kind of assistance that you should be compensated for...so feel free to send me a bill. It's just that my whole method of handicapping revolves around this concept and I want to make sure that finding the Pace of the Race rating with PP's that have both Sprints and Routes mixed in can be done in Formula View.

My dream template would look just like 4.0's current Fraction Screen except the horses would be automatically sorted by Runnng Styles and Speed Pts. and there would be an extra column next to the E2 Rating column that had the Pace of the Race Rating...if the horse was on the lead this number would be exactly the same as his E2 Rating...if he was 3 lengths behind the leader, the POR Rating would be 6 points higher than his E2 rating. I would probably add a few more columns that showed posistion and Lengths behind for each call as well. So once I know that my "sorting" and "POR Rating" can be done, I'll be out of your hair forever! Of course, if I get sucked into working with the Profiler...

Thanks again to you and Bill for taking the time to answer my questions,

KevinKD

Yes, you'd want to use $ppPace6 for route races.

This makes it a bit more tricky because you can't have an "if" in an expression. So, the solution is probably to use two columns, one for routes and one for sprints, if you wanted both sprints and routes on the same view.

Now, getting the LEADER'S pace figure is also a bit tricky because that info is not in the data itself for a past performance (unless the horse happened to be the leader). Thankfully, this is easily obtained through the beaten lengths.
So, in our Sprint Race column we could have something like this:

$ppPace4 + (2 * $ppBtnLengths2)

This gives the "pace of the race" since two lengths is one pace figure, we just add this value to the horse's pace figure.

Now, you could add in something to this column to make sure that it ONLY includes sprints:
#LESSER($ppDistFurs, 8) * ($ppPace4 + (2 * $ppBtnLengths2))

The #LESSER function will return 1 if the distance of the past performance is less than 8 furlongs, otherwise it will return a 0. Thus, all route races in this column will become a 0 while sprints will be unchanged (multiplied by 1).

You could then have a Route column that would be very similar:

$ppPace6 + (2 * $ppBtnLengths2)

Note, we still use $ppBtnLengths2 here because its beaten lengths at the second CALL, which, in Routes, is at 6 furlongs.
Multiply this by 1 if the race is indeed a route, otherwise zero it out by multiplying it by 0:
#GREATER($ppDistFurs, 7.9) * ($ppPace6 + (2 * $ppBtnLengths2))

One more variable could be added to make this a bit simpler:

$ppE2 + (2 * $ppBtnLenghts2)

The $ppE2 variable does not currently exist. I'll look into it and may add it. What it would do would be to pull out the "canonical" E2 value irregardless of the distance of the race. That way a sprint would resolve to $ppPace4 and a route to $ppPace6 automagically (and there are a couple of other variations in longer races too).