Was wondering how many of you would find a Impact Value based upon post position bias (winners) for race surface, track condition and distance categories added to ES's Profiler to be something you would be interested in?

Nathan's gonna kill me, but I for one wouldn't mind paying for a stand alone html charts parser that provided me with this info but most importantly I believe its inclusion would further differentiate and elevate ES further above any competitive products.

With the exception of a a select few tracks that "get it" this information is not available on line. To be fair here are the customer friendly tracks I have found that provide the aforementioned information CRC, DMR, HOU, KEE, LAD, MTH, OPX, SAR.

As you can see it's not many and before someone mentions Equibase's free meet statistics...while their intentions are noble their post position information is greatly flawed.

Unless you're playing ALB,BEU,CLS,CTX,FLX,EMD,EVD,
FPK,GLD,HOO,PRM,TDN,TPX,YAV or any other track that does not run turf races the following concerning Equibase's free Post Position Bias statistics should be understood.

Sprint races are ALL race track conditions for sprint races (fst,gd,sl,my,fm,yd..all). The same goes for their route numbers. Their turf numbers, having already been included in thier free dirt sprint and route figures apply to all turf distances.

For those of you who use post position bias's in your handicapping I ask you, why should we be thankful to Equibase for this free inaccurate information?

I understand the challenges of parsing HTML files as they are continually subject to changes, but as far as post position bias is concerned and the fact that most of the major three have not changed their html charts files in over two years I feel it is definately worth the effort.

Always open to all responses, both pro or con.

Smick,

Don't we already have most that in the new version 4.0 beta under post position report?

I think the Post Pos report does cover a good deal of this -- using the post position impact from the Post Pos report in conjunction with the profiler values is an interesting avenue (yet to be explored) -- something to tie their usefullness in with the rest of the smorgasborg.

For what specific purpose is this Post Pos report generated (other than to eyeball), what information does it contain, does it parse the .html charts for it's input, is it possible to select a range of dates, tracks, surfaces and distances similar to the way SPAT works and is it possible for the report to be generated in a .csv file? Thanks.

Just noticed from Will's earlier reply that a ES 4.0 beta is available.

Nathan send it if you you care for me to look at it.

Mark

hi all, I'm new at this and a little overwhelmed with it all...what is the best way to get a handle on it? I've been reading the posts but they seem to go all over the board.

Eric S.

Welcome Modred,

ES is like that now. It has goes everywhere. It is almost like we name it and Nathan puts it into EquiSim. The little program has grown up to be King of the Hill. The upgrade to version 4.0 was hugh. Well worth the upgrade fee.

ES not only has the Simulator and Profiler from version 3.5 but also has trainer, jockey, owner, sire, etc. information from its own database built right in. And all that is fully addressable to answer your own questions. Like how does certain jockeys do with E type horses or EP, or P, or S. And what about trainers with first time starters, or certain jockeys, or trainers first or even second time after a claim, etc.
Plus my favorite new feature. ES will do you record keeping for you. It will show you what types of races, surfaces, distances, etc. you are winning along with your ROI and it will even show you what Odd ranges you are doing best at.
Got to love it!

... of what I, sleepily, call "Track Personality." I don't use the bias word too much because it seems every track has a complete personality exhibited from ownership on down. Post position by distance, surface, and condition would be only one small part of that personality. Try researching the best days of the week to wager at your favorite track. The Racing Secretary has a set pattern that repeats, some more and some less, that will affect your bankroll or, at the very least, the number of races you can wager on a Wednesday versus the number of qualified races for a Saturday and then there's Sunday. And what's more predictable - a $32000 Allowance NW2X or a $40000 Allowance NW3X?

Armed with the best pseudo random number generator available (and they are damned expensive) the inherent randomness of horse racing within somewhat orderly confines (odds) it is sometimes best to be armed with darts and a program or numbered ping pong balls. Actually, I have experimented with the numbered ping pong balls and shown a small profit.

How many factors should be used in making the wagering decision, assuming you are decision oriented and not selection oriented, heaven forbid.

Well, to save all of my brethren and sistern (isn't that like a well?) a lot of work I have narrowed it down to the minimum number of factors you must know to be a winning horseplayer. You ready for this? Ok here it is:

1,322 factors are necessary to be a winning horseplayer. This is no joke and I am not making this up. Incorporate all these factors (I'd type them in here but since I have them memorized you'll just have to get your own list) and you will be a winner.

For those of you, brethren and sistern alike, who do not want to go to this trouble and do this work I suggest you give your money to a worthy cause - I just happen to have a real live telephone number where you can call 24 hours a day and find out what to do with all that extra moola you gotcha - call now (and no it ain't toll free and you're even paying for the person on the other end to answer the call) - 1.202.456.1414.

Well I'm off to tally my whackers, er uh, no, I mean factors. Geesh, I better sign off,

Cash five $50 horses tomorrow,

Bob

Mailto:skyblue1@pobox.com

modred
The best way to learn this application and apply it well comes from playing or at least using it to pick races. Whether you bet or not, play with it. I have spent several days using ES to pick races without betting a dime. When the database features of version 4 (datafresh) are all up and running etc, I am going to have a ball playing this winter. But, for now, start slow. Learn how to pick your own pacelines and play. Use the multi pacelines on and off to view the sim results and just play as much as you can for a while (whether you bet or not doesn't matter) and you will start to get a feel for it.

JustRalph Form Cycle Shaman

Thanks JR....Presently I am DLing LaD and will do FG when it starts because I live in near New Orleans and like those tracks. Is it possible to use only those tracks and do well? Also, how can I get ver 4.0?