Nathan previously mentioned that in the future development of ES he planned on "perhaps" implementing logorithims that enabled users to "tell" ES what pp line(s) to select.

In my thoughts this should be the primary objective of what comes next.

Unfortunately, all too often in my experiences, even after sim training & storing it to a db in tandem with multiple setting pace line db creation and storage (because of ES's endless opportunity of settings and recreation)... Remarkably the answer to the race appears to be within the "plain old Jane" fractions tool that's been around since inception, rather than the complicated configuring of profiler figs.

Many times the fractions tool is much better at identifying a race winner than the other ES tools whose powers I believe have yet to be fully identified and capitalized on by most all of us.

Again, what should be the top prioity as we all move forward with N_ (one tough nut coder who also understands the game)?

I believe it is allowing the user to create/determine what running lines are to be selected before being encorporated (stored) in a users dbs. The free dbs posted on line by N_ are very helpful, but how where they created (what settings etc.?)

That's where the "noise" IMO comes into play with regard to the profiler.

IMO it seems needlessly challenging to train sims and build dbs without user control on how the pp lines are selected.

As an example of why I believe the selection of pp lines should be left to the user is Aqu1211 (Race 8, yesterday) when ES ignored the #6 horse "Stake"'s last pp line and went further back because it "stumbled badly at the start"...albeit while wiring the field in its last...it ran 2nd at 17:1 but what matters is that "blind" users didn't have a chance since the ES skipped the wire to wire effort because of trouble from the gate...profiler value was determined off this horses performance other than its last...no way this should happen.

In conclusion, boy would it be really, really great if next ES would allow users to configure what type of RL's are to be used for both Sims and Profiler.

That's all.


In conclusion...logorithisms that allow users to instruct ES how to select pp lines is sooo important I even refrain from mentioning it!

Thanks, Nathan

Smick,

As for building an algorithm to choose pace lines, many of us - perhaps most of us, have been there and done that. The program was HSH and it allows the creation of several different pace line algorithms for pace line selections. It is quite detailed and very extensive. There are a lot of different rules for building the algorithm.

There is no doubt in my mind that Nathan could do the same and, probably, make it even better.

The key question is: Does it increase your profits? Well, the key answer is: Yes. The caveat is: If you understand it.

Nathan has been under the gun, so to speak, for several months. Don't expect to see something like this real soon. He needs a break today and tomorrow and ... well, you get the picture.

One of the main obstacles to a task of this nature is in imparting to those who will be using it, how to use it without 7391 questions on it. Yeah, I'm being slightly facetious, but not much.

That said, I do believe that JustRalph has a pretty good pace line selection system now. He picks them manually and let's EquiSim take over from there.

The point is, and I know I may rattle around a bit before I get to the point - at least that's what I hear from a lot of people, quite often is this: You can do that now, it's just a big pain in the grass.

If anybody implements a breakthrough handicapping technology in the near to mid-term future, I believe it will be Nathan. Geez, just look at what he's done with V4.

Go get 'em this weekend,

Bob

skyblue1@forClark.com

I'm not sure whether this is built into the program or not - but, I'd like to be able to tune for specific distances rather than distance categories, same with the profiler: select specific distance rather than distance category.

Smick,

Sorry about that.

Smick, you touched on something that I have been thinking about, so I'll throw in my two cents worth.

If it were possible, I would like to see the data in JR's Magic Marker (Race Form View)changed from the relationship to the race's par fractions to info directly from the Fractions Chart for, say, the top 5 horses for each fraction (1st call, 2nd call, late and speed).

As it is now, the par info is marked regardless of distance and surface. And some of the pars are not accurate for certain races, anyhow (state-bred races, for instance).

With the Fractions Chart info, I think the marked areas would be much more accurate and useful.

Just a thought.

I would like to see something that would automatically search through race cards based on user input.

This program has given us some great tools to identify spot play so I would like to take that to the next step.

If I identify through the connection research that in Turf Sprints, when Jeff Mullins uses Victor Espinoza he wins 85%, I would like to enter that someplace so the when I load a racecard it would automacally search for that.

I feel that identifying such plays is a key to mulit-track wagers.

I for one cannot handle actual handicapping of more that one track.

So I would like to put my hours in BACK-END handicapping in other words spend my hours doing research looking for spot plays and after that let the computer do the work.

Chris

Ditto on the spot play. I was thinking more on the lines of ES looking at every trainer on todays card then then running a built in macro (okay maybe some real programming) and running through all the abilities for each trainer and then showing those that meet a certain positive ROI and showing what race and horse this could be expected.

Bob,

Thanks for your reply.

Been wanting to reply to your post but have just now been able to find the time to address it properly.

I genuinely agree with all you stated, especially that "N" deserves a break and I guess I should have been clearer on why I thought pp selection algorithms were important for a future release of ES (ie 5.0).

Must admit that although I thought I was familiar with most all apps for flats that have been available in the past decade or so you got me with HSH.

All of us have different ways of attacking this great sport. In my case I build dbs for all tracks and look for "spot" plays to wager on via the net.

While I would never think of plunking money down on a race without thoroughly reviewing and adjusting pace lines if necessary (I update my dbs with jockey changes but my shrink who happens to be my brother says that's my issue he can't help with <g> ), if one is storing more than say 3 or 4 tracks, then individually reviewing all horses running lines becomes prohibitive with regard to the time it takes.

With the understanding that each of us attacks this game a bit differently, in my case it would be most helpful to me to be able to define pp selection algorithms as it would enable me to establish general parameters of my own choice in an effort to build multiple track dbs in a time efficient and consistent manner.

Additionally, it is my opinion and only an opinion that user discussion, idea sharing and interaction would be greater on the subject of "how do you set your pp preferences?" rather than "what items do you have turned on or off under the profiler preferences|set_up|horse,trn,jky,sire,ownr settings?"...and in the end the profiler figure is exclusively dependent on the selected running line (unless one uses multiple lines which I am not yet sold on).

Thanks again Bob for your thoughtful reply...it is much appreciated.

Cash is ok but go get the check.

[This message was edited by Smick on December 20, 2003 at 03:26 AM.]

Smick,

quote:

---

Originally posted by Smick: my shrink who happens to be my brother says that's my issue he can't help

---

Well hell, there you go Smick.

My shrink is not related to me. He just takes my cash and buys a new Lexus every few months. If he cured me then the cash flow would dry up and he might have to drive a two year old Lexus - disgusting! to say the least.

No, I really do have a shrink and will be happy to talk with anyone at any time about it. The reason being that I think everyone would benefit by having a few sessions with a shrink or other qualified professional therapist. The days of the "stigma" should have died but, alas, I don't think they have.

The nice thing about people thinking you're nuts is that you can get away with almost anything and they think, "he didn't mean it, he's just nuts." Hehehe Yeah, we did mean it, most of the time.

Hit a great big one today,

Bob

skyblue1@forClark.com

In this day of simulcast racing, I would like to see the ability to query the Connections database to search all trainers on abilities such as best r.o.i or percentage in starter allowance races or stakes races. Maybe also as far as success with shippers,turf wins,fts, first time turf,long shots, etc. Then a search could be made through BRIS or Equibase to find those trainers who have a horse spotted in one of those situations . As it is now each trainer must be done individually. In other words "I want it all" !