Ok, bad news -- I screwd up with my first rendition of the Profiler Foundation DB for 4.0 -- I did not have the "prevent restore" feature turned on - and did not have the "Store native races only" option turned on. Several tracks, most notably the Ohio 7/7, give you two cards (say, one for Beulah and one for Thistledown) with the same races on it. If you do NOT tell ES to PREVENT duplicate storage, you can get really bad backfitting. Hence the features.

So the bad news is that you're not going to get a -4% ROI betting every single race out of 65K races or so.

The really good news is that there are tracks where you can find this sort of opportunity using ES without much additional work. The strongest value overall is the Profiler value. In 51396 starts it hits 29.29% of the time. That's pretty darn good. If you just look at the top profiler value WHEN it is also the top sim horse it is 30.20% wins -- and this is without you doing any work at all. I'm hopeful.
And then you can use the SPAT, and other features, to find out where its doing best at. For example, and this is a really simple example since I only looked at 2-3 tracks so far. AQU shows a Profiler value hitting for 30.93% and a -4.93% ROI in the last 1054 races. Not bad for mechanical picks.

OK, so the bottom line still remains this -- in 4.0 YOU CAN CONFIGURE THE "INPUTS" TO THE PROFILER VALUES CONSIDERABLY. I URGE YOU TO EXPLORE THE DIFFERENT SETTINGS AND FIND WHAT THE OPTIMUM VALUES ARE. There are places that the default settings do extremely well at -- there should be some combinations that make better sense, and perform better. DO NOT THINK THAT I HAVE APPLIED SOME MYSTICAL, EXTRA-ORDINARY handicapping power to these default settings -- I have not. That leaves the playing field wide open - the opportunity to exploit this technology is there. I think the baseline results, and, in general, the logic behind the system, are fundamentally sound. Go forth and propser with it!

Nathan,

As a new member to the ES team this is all very exciting and I hope we all do well. But I've got to be honest -- the last time I "propsered" I hurt myself. LOL

HH

Can't wait to get the database. And I bet you can't wait to get it out, especially with all the requests I have made for databases.

Congrats on a super upgrade Nathan!!

Jim

Nathan,

Right now with almost 31,000 races at the currently running tracks in North America here's what I get on the Top Selection in each category:

Simulation /24.30% Wins/-15.29 ROI
Profiler / 28.37% Wins/-14.25 ROI
Sim & Prof/ 29.00% Wins/-13.99 ROI
Compilation/27.10% Wins/- 7.32 ROI

This is every race, no segmentation at all, which shows that not much in the way of handicapping is necessary to bring it in + territory.

And, I too, thank you for a superb and brilliant software program. Even more than that, I thank you for being one super fella. You've done good boy, you've done good!

p.s. (priori scripti - I just made that up but it sounds Latiny enough to be correct)
I know, I know about using the "boy" word. "What you gonna say when you go home and tell your momma a boy done whupped your ass?"

V4 is a great package - now I want the modeling package and V5. Damn, just think how good your work is going to be in a few years since you are so young, same age as my son.

Thanks,

Bob

skyblue1@forClark.com