A few quick ?'s

1) How were the default values under Profiler Preferences|Set up arrived at?

2) This is more of an obsevation/question: Before fully grasping the technique of the Profiler Preferences|Set Up option I came up with a compilation win% figure for Hou of 42.69 for the #1 ranked horse and 22.95 for the #2 ranked horse (no "backfitting"). Needless to say that when applied to other tracks the same settings returned values of weak confidence or worse. Upon review of the settings I discovered that, for example, I had Trainer/Jockey and Jockey/Trainer selected...same with Jockey/Owner & Owner/Jockey etc. While this apparently works well at Hou (all cards run since 1/1/02 to present)I'm reluctant to use it, except at hou, because the same settings fail miserably at other tracks and most importantly, as it pertains to the compilation figure, isn't it like double dipping ie counting the same stat twice?

3) Finaly I was wondering whether anyone has experienced the following using build 4.0.0.22 or whether perhaps I'm missing something:

a) When building a new db selecting Profiler Preferences|More Configuations and on the right side selecting any combination of dirt, turf, sprint or route works...add a race type (clm, alw, etc)and the proggie appears to forget doing only the combination of afformentioned four. Not sure whether this has anything to do with it but at the Profiler Preferences|More Configuations screen the "apply" box is greyed out.

b) Along the same lines as above in attempting to build a new db, going to Profiler Preferences|Configuations I noted the following. I've been building with Track, Dist Cat, Surf, & No Off tracks, however, whenever I tried selecting the "class" box with a check then adding multiple files to the newly created db with the "store by track" command only the first or second card appear to be processed as selected. An example may clarify things: Selected Preferences|Configurations settings are Track, Dist. Cat.(Sprint), Surf(Dirt), Class(Clm), No Off Tracks. After the db is built it contains all Dirt Sprints regardless of class.

It could be me but I'm curious to know. Thanks.

Hi Smick,

A) A good question that I have a bad answer for -- good old "that looks right to me". Given that the Comp value is now showing a -5.4% ROI over 39000 races, I'd say it wasn't too far off (because that's awfully good for playing every race mechanically....). But I do think one could find their very own golden goose by coming up with a different/better set of things to use to produce the values.

B)I think the answer is - no - its not quite like double dipping. The reason is that the values are created relative to how all of the other horses. So if one horse "double dips", then they all do. What you'd be getting is that the Trainer/Jockey factor would go into the computation of the Trainer value, and the Jockey/Trainer factor would go into the Jockey value.

3A) _- Don't worry about the APply box. Just hit OK when you're are done and all is well. I'll look into this problem..... thanks for the info.

3B) I _think_ that what you are referring to is the "Default Primary Filters" in the Prof Preferences->Config area. These filters simply set up the way the Profiler COntrols filters are set when a race (and only when a race) is _first loaded_. So by using the "Class" filter, you are simply telling EquiSim to ONLY allow races of the same class into the _profile_ for the race when it is profiled.

Thanks Nathan,

Not sure where you find the time or get your energy from, but I looked at most all of 'em out there at one time or another and have yet to find a product with the quality and support you give to ES Roi.

PS Folks who really know me wouldn't believe I just gave that kind of compliment, but it is well earned.

One last quick question

Since Sims can be "tuned" couldn't profile values also be tuned? (I just ducked)!

*****CRASH***** Good move.

But, yes, why not tuneable? Well, the first reason would be what tuning entails -- typically a _long_ wait.

But, along the lines of tuneable, I think my next step with this stuff will be in the realm of "agents" -- things that help you make (wagering) decisions based on the info at hand. Once we have agents, then the agents themselves become "tuneable". While I haven't put all of this stuff into play yet (so I don't know the details), one would expect that the agents themselves would be more manageable (faster to tune with) then attempting to "tune" massive data sets. Again, this is looking at things with a very, very wide angle lens.

quote:

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Originally posted by Smick:
add a race type (clm, alw, etc)and the proggie appears to forget doing only the combination of afformentioned four.

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ES appears to be behaving correctly, but I'll run by what I did and also provide a clarification of the way that stuff works.
First, that "stuff" on the more config screen works by EXCLUDING ALL RACES THAT do NOT have the attributes selected. So if you select "Turf" and "Sprint" then you should expect a database with ONLY turf and sprint races.

This is the test I just ran:
A) New DB
B) Set up more config to have the TURF and the SPRINT items selected.
C) Used "STore by Track" tos tore the Fairgrounds 1/1/2003 to 1/9/2003 races.
D)The database showed ONLY 8 TURF SPRINT races, so it worked as expected.
E) TO make sure, I created another db and repeated the procedure, this time using TURF ROUTES. The outcome was a db with only turf routes in it.

If your results are different from this - please advise!

Nathan,

Yes, that is exactly where I was able to get to but as said in a classic "Columbo" "This far and no further".

The situation occurs when for example I wish to build a db for Dirt/Sprint/Clm only.

ES states the following "If any of these criteria are SELECTED then ONLY races that have the selected criteria will be stored to the database"

I interpreted that to mean that if I selected Dirt and Sprint and Claiming that the new db (and associated cnx stats) would be built only on those criteria.

After Dirt, Sprint, Clm is selecected ES returns all Dirt-Sprints...instead of only Dirt-Spr-Clm...new db also contains Dirt-Sprint-Alw, Dirt-Sprint-Mdn Claiming etc.

Shouldn't it just contain Dirt-Sprint-Clm if that is all that is selected on the right side?

If not, what are the race classifications there for? Thanks

Ahh yes, there are three "categories" of stuff there in the "more config" area.

So here's what I did:

Used Turf, Sprint, Claiming.
Built DB for FG 1/1 - 1/9.
Came up with 1 race. Seems correct.

Did the same thing with only Turf and Sprint, as before. Here we have 8 races. So it seems that this is working over here, though I didn't walk through all of the turf sprints races to see that there was only one that was a claiming race. I also ran a new db with Dirt-Sprint-Claiming and it appears as though it worked -- only Dirt Sprint Claiming races were stored to db.

Try running a very small sample on a db and see if it appears to be working -- say 2 or 3 cards. If it doesn't work it will give me somewhere more specific to look.

Just to check what you fellas are talking about I just went and looked at my dbs. Specifically, I looked at a "small" db where I specified Dirt Allowance Sprints. I checked to see if there were any other types of races, any other surfaces or any other distances.

Answer is no. It only contains Dirt Allowance Sprints.

At one time this wasn't working if I recall correctly, which is questionable. Nathan, I believe you fixed this at about build 14 or 16? I can't remember when exactly, but I know that it does now work.

Smick, I've read your posts a couple of times and I can't see where you are doing anything differently than what I did. Try Nathan's suggestion and build something small and see what happens. Actually, that's what I did because the first time I built a specific database, everything was in there and I had to do it all again. That ain't a whole lotta fun.

Bob

Mailto:skyblue1@pobox.com

Bob -- good point that I somehow failed to mention. There was indeed a bug in previous versions that caused this stuff not to work correctly. Sorry I forgot to mention that.

ALSO - while I'm here.... someone just pointed out to me(people keep pointing stuff out to me... this is not a bad thing, just a frustrating thing) that the IMPORT/EXPORT does NOT utilize the RULES that we are talking about here. They probably should.... And another also -- there may be a problem with the IMPORT/EXPORT corrupting data. I've had two reports in the last two days about weird results coming out of SPAT. The common denominator seems to be that the import/export feature was used on the databases in question.

Ok fellas..After further review, I found no irrefutable visual evidence that would indicate that ES was not building the db properly.

Matter of fact it was building it properly and if I would have used the SPAT first (duh) I would have realized that.

Here's what I noticed that led me to believe it was not doing so. After the db had been created I opened a "new" file (one not previously stored) and went to the profiler view.

For this example let's assume the db was built for Dirt|Sprint|Claiming races. Upon opening each race in the profiler view I was expecting to see profiler values of 0 for all races other than Dirt|Sprint|Claiming. Indeed all routes and turf races showed 0 profiler values but Dirt|Sprint|msw, mdn clm, alw, hcp etc. appeared with profiler values in them leading me to believe something was amiss. Looks like the values showing for these other classifications are the Dirt|Sprint|Claiming values. That's what threw me a curve (never could hit that off speed junk).

I am not an expert on ES by any means so this question is for my edification.

Why build all these different databases? If I build 1 huge database for say 10 different tracks and I want to see the win % for the Comp at 6F dirt at all those tracks or just Santa Anita, can't I just use SPAT.


thanks for the help,

Chris

Think I found the answer to my own question:

CONNECTION STATS, RIGHT?

Nathan, is it a programing nightmare to have the same type of filters that SPAT has for the connections portion?

I would like to see how Frankel does on Turf sprints, with Pat V up at night, with a full moon when his horse is gray at 3-1 or less.

Thanks,

chris

quote:

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Originally posted by Chris:
Think I found the answer to my own question:

CONNECTION STATS, RIGHT?

Nathan, is it a programing nightmare to have the same type of filters that SPAT has for the connections portion?

I would like to see how Frankel does on Turf sprints, with Pat V up at night, with a full moon when his horse is gray at 3-1 or less.

Thanks,

chris

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Chris,

If you are old enough to remember the tv show "Dr. IQ" this is when Dr. IQ would say something like, "give that man 50 silver dollars." And they were really silver then too.

Bob

Mailto:skyblue1@pobox.com

On the subject of databases........anybody got an Aqu inner track only database?

I notice that when I uncheck the "track" selection on the current Aqu database I am using, I do get different numbers in the profiler. So...maybe my question about an inner track only DB is a moot point....anybody want to fill me in? On a side note...from the database I am using, it looks like Dom E2 and late is around a 33% winner. The DOM prime power looks like around 47% winner with 5.99 roi. I know the dom prime power might show that in a lot of places (other tracks) but with a 5.99 roi seems like a good thing to know.

JustRalph Cartoon Character
Wannabe Horse Player

[This message was edited by JustRalph on December 03, 2003 at 01:01 AM.]

Chris -- I've got a post or two around here lamenting the way that connection stats need to be done now.

To recap - they were actually done differently at first, in a way that would allow you to look at them in very much the same way you can look at the stuff SPAT tracks. The problem was that the database got absolutey _huge_ very quickly.

And, also, it made the queries fairly slow. Now, instead of profiler asking how well some connection (say a trainer) does with some ability (say Best E1), the profiler would have to say -- HEY DB, give me ALL the records in such a such a range that match such and such filters, and then I'll process them all. To complicate things, I would need to perform more or less a "dynamic" look up instead of a table based 'seek' -- orders of magnitude slower. To my chagrin the implementation was not blazing fast, but rather tepid and slow. And so began the first great challenge of releasing 4.0 some time ago already....

jr - I can build aqu inner, but problably not for a day or so. Give me _date ranges_ please so I don't have to look them up (dates when the inner track is used). ES doesn't have the ability to differentiate between specific courses at a Track.

Lets try Dec 1st to Jan 1st just for the hell of it. I think they only race on the inner for a month or so. I can't seem to find any solid info on last years dates. Anybody have a suggestion for Dates for the inner track?

JustRalph Cartoon Character
Wannabe Horse Player

Hi,

I'm a new user, just getting started with 4.0. Based here in NY - the AQU Inner dirt track usually starts around the end of November - beginning of December, and runs approximately 3 1/2 - 4 months, depending on weather conditions.

Steve

Building an AQU 12/1 to 3/1 right now. Will post again when done.