You all have to understand that I really haven't had a great amount of time to put ES 4.0 through the works _actually playing_. Mainly because all of the time I would have to play I've spent trying to release it (and I've been busy with other stuff too, this isn't a sob story).

But, damn, maybe this thing really shouldn't be for sale.... Strange thing happened between about April (about 35K top ranked starts into the DB) and the end of October (now some 56K top ranked starts). The Comp Value _improved_ its ROI:
56168 starts, 27.35% wins, -4.28% ROI

Sim Dropped a bit:
62K races, 24.78% wins, -13.06% ROI

Prof does its sort of chalky thing:
56K starts, 29% wins, -12.11% ROI

And, then, WHAM:
Trainer Val:
57298 starts, 26.01% wins, -3.28% ROI

I think someone was mumbling sumthin' about a handicapping software runoff sometime ago.....

Jockey Val:
56254 starts: 28.94 % wins, -10.4% ROI


I don't know guys, but that kind of performance makes me drool (just a little, promise)....

More on that:
To get to positive territory (remember, the above was playing every race, and doing so completely mechanically....):

Trainer: Bet horses 2/1 or higher -
37K starts, 17.7% wins, + 0.17% ROI.
Its not a lot, but its definitely in the right direction.

Trainer, 3/1 or better... Should I tell you, or make you wait for the DB? At the pace I've been going, that would be cruel and unusual....
Trainer val, 3/1 or better:
27390 starts, 13.53% wins, +3.12% ROI

4/1 or better.. Do we dare?
21323, 11.12% wins, +4.95% ROI.

Ahh, but that's just because you hit a long shot! (one might say). Really, with 37K races?
To be a sport, cap the highest horse at 15/1 (with 4/1 min odds):
16554, 13.02% wins, 1.63% ROI

Yep, its the real deal.
But since this is so much fun, how about we run down the Comp Value:
1/1: 49K, 23.63, -3.29% ROI
2/1: 34645, 18.17%, ++++++0.12 ROI.

There she is. That elusive animal - the positive ROI. No wonder Bob's so happy....

3/1: 24428, 14.23%, +2.99% ROI

4/1: 18449, 11.64% wins, +4.75% ROI Note that the avg. payoff here is $18, or an 8/1 horse.
So what if you were to only play horses that were top comp val horses and went off at between 8/1 and 9/1. This substantially narrows our plays, but we get:
1240 starts, 11.21% wins, +6.24% ROI

Nathan,

And why do you suppose I've been citing so many situations with the Top Compilation value?

Here's the one little rub, for some people, with this. This is not an every day, every week or, even, every month positive. However, just a few days ago I posted something about looking at "The Big Picture."

In my DB the payoff starts at 5.0 odds:
6870 Starts 9.91% Win Frequency 3.16%ROI and $20.81 Average Payoff (or 9.4 to 1).
OR
Using a range like you have, how about:
8.0 to 12.99 odds, 1,880 Starts, 10.05% Win Frequency 8.69%ROI and $21.62 Average Payoff.
No segmentation within that odds range. All races, MSWs, MDCs, St Handicaps, and Clms and Allowances as well as NGs and Graded Stakes races.

Here I go touting Fierro's book again but if you take his advice about treating this like a business, there will be good quarters and some negative quarters. Keep the focus on the whole year and you do get to make drives to the bank with a big smile on your face.

Get to playing and stop working so much,

Bob

skyblue1@pobox.com